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Warm and dry November signals tropical risk in December

Marine temperatures in the shallows are now around 20 to 21c, with some beaches around Auckland’s harbours and the Firth of Thames at 22c. These temperatures are about 2 to 4c above normal. The reason is that the current La Niña weather pattern has delivered a very warm and dry November across the upper North Island.

This weather pattern will continue in December, but it will start to bring the risk of tropical depressions developing in the very warm waters of the Coral Sea and the Fijian basin. This in turn will increase the chances of an unsettled Christmas and New Year for the South Pacific and the upper North Island.

For more detailed commentary on this topic, check out the 14 day-cyclone outlook which is updated every Friday afternoon for the next 14 days.

The current wind pattern and sea surface temperature difference from normal.

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