South Pacific tropical cyclone outlook
Based on the ECMWF 51 member ensemble
Run forecast date 12 January 2023
South Pacific Basin
29 Jan to 5 Feb - Low chance of a Tropical Depression.
5 Feb to 12 Feb - Low to Moderate chance of a Tropical Depression
Australian Basin
29 Jan to 5 Feb - Moderate chance of a Tropical Depression
5 Feb to 12 Feb - Moderate to high chance of a Tropical Depression
Tropical update: 27 January 2023 Next update 10 February, 2023, 2pm NZT
During the first week of the outlook, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) pulse will be out of the region and moving from the Indian Ocean towards the Maritime continent. This will mean suppressed tropical rain and thunderstorm development during this period.
From 1st week into the 2nd week of the outlook, the MJO pulse will continue to move into the Maritime continent region. This will likely mean a return of the Australian monsoon towards the middle of February and an increase in chance of tropical lows in both the Australian and South Pacific basins.